The U.S. will spend hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years to promote clean energy technologies, "smart grid" infrastructure projects, and other green programs.

The United States will become a leader in global climate policy discussions, including the Copenhagen talks. The stalling and prevarication are over. But any concrete action will still be focused on the economic and strategic benefits it can deliver.

The Obama campaign had a detailed energy policy. But politics is the art of the possible, and the energy/climate policy that actually emerges under the Obama Administration will emphasize economic stimulus and job creation.

U.S. Will Retake Leadership in Technology and Policy

HaraBara expects the U.S. to use deep deficit spending to create jobs and boost a flagging economy. President-Elect Obama has repeatedly noted the potential of new clean energy technology and infrastructure projects to both create "green jobs" and stimulate the economy.

Obama has called for a national renewable portfolio standard to mandate that utilities get 10% of electricity from renewable sources by 2012, and 25% by 2025. This is much more timid than former Vice President Al Gore's "Repower America" campaign. Such targets may be increased. We expect that Congress may be eager to spend on infrastructure, and that constraints on deficit spending will be lifted to encourage job creation and inject money into the economy. The demand for U.S. Government bonds means that deficit spending can be pursued at very low cost at the moment. The need for short-term stimulation will certainly dominate concerns for the taxpayers of the future.

The billions that are going to be splashed out to keep the U.S. auto industry afloat could be tied to new requirements for energy efficiency, alternative fuels, electric vehicles and so forth. This will be something lawmakers will have to negotiate with the car companies.

Carbon taxes are probably the most efficient way to wean economies off fossil fuels, but in the current circumstances these don't have a chance, unless they are offset by even deeper tax cuts elsewhere.

President-Elect Obama has stuck tightly to the Democratic Party line as a legislator in Illinois and in the U.S. Senate. He will work closely with leaders in the Party and in Congress to craft policy. He is a political pragmatist. He will not charge off on his own. We expect incremental, conservative policies. That said, today cap and trade programs and stimulus for alternative energy technologies are "conservative", conventional policies. The type of policies enacted in California are likely to be seen soon at the national level. Mr. Obama is not a revolutionary, but he and his advisers do understand the need to act firmly to address energy and climate disruption concerns.

(The New York Times' Green Inc. blog has assembled comments from a range of energy and green "experts" here.)

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